Week 7 Information

Lectures

• Monte Carlo
• The Bootstrap

Homework

• Homework 3 due 3/14/25 by 9PM.
• Solutions for Homework 2 available.

Readings

• Bankes, S. (1993). Exploratory modeling for policy analysis. Operations Research, 41(3), 435–449. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.41.3.435

As you’re reading, please use the collaborative annotation in Canvas to make notes and read and respond to others’ thoughts and questions. We will discuss the paper in the 03/10 class period. You will be graded based on annotation and participation in the discussion.

In particular, please focus on:

• What are the differences between consolidative and exploratory modeling?
• What is the relationship between exploratory modeling and the types of model-based analyses we are discussing in class?
• How can exploratory modeling be used in conjunction with or instead of Monte Carlo when we don’t have well-defined input distributions?
• How might sensitivity analysis fit into our modeling workflows?
• How do different exploratory modeling types reflect different goals and questions, and what are the implications for modeling or data analysis approaches?

Quiz

• Quiz due Monday.